Thought of the Day
June 8, 2016
Hillary (H-Rod, as Isis the Scientist puts it) gave one heck of a General election speech last night.
She is going to mop the floor with Trump all through the coming campaign.
This will be a bigger landslide win than Reagan’s.
DrugMonkey 
June 8, 2016 at 9:13 am
Counterpoint: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-donald-trump-will-win-the-white-house-20160606-gpd47b
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June 8, 2016 at 11:15 am
Anyone think he’ll drop out between the convention and November? When it gets harder and he isn’t playing only to his base?
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June 8, 2016 at 11:45 am
I’m still hoping for him to admit that this was all a charade with the intent to show what a disgrace our political system is and how easy it was to manipulate, then proudly boast that he has always been and continues to be a big Clinton supporter . . .
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June 8, 2016 at 11:49 am
He’s not going to drop out, but he might be forced out if enough Republicans demand it. They are starting to make noises about it, but I predict that they won’t do it. Most of their outrage at Trump’s racism is just a show anyway. Trump’s crime was to say publicly what they think privately. But that crime is precisely what Trump’s supporters want to see him commit, over and over again.
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June 8, 2016 at 11:56 am
He won’t drop out, his yuge ego won’t let him admit that he could be beat or is wrong. His candidacy has never been about the Republican party or making America great again, merely about trying to prove to the world that he is the best. He’s a text-book narcissist.
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June 8, 2016 at 12:21 pm
Zen,
Trump is a brainless vulgar man. I can’t believe even for a minute that he’ ll win.
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June 8, 2016 at 12:30 pm
I think Trump wins in November. At the least, it’s delusional to think it will be a Reagan-esque blowout on the order of 489-44 electoral votes as seen in 1980.
What is Trump’s downside? If you’re a Trump supporter after this many months, what is going to change your mind? He’s already said enough unsavory things that a few more aren’t going to sway your opinion. Before judge-gate, the GOP was rallying around him. This isn’t going to stop that. More loathing and judgment from the GOP establishment makes him more attractive to his voters, not less.
On the contrary, Hillary has more downside. People generally like her less the more she’s in the public eye, her style of speech is robotic, the FBI is looking into her conduct, it remains to be seen whether she can reconcile the BernieBros to her camp, and more San Jose-style ‘protests’ would simply serve to make Trump’s positions look rational.
It’s going to be close.
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June 8, 2016 at 1:08 pm
Interesting piece on the conundrum facing women seeking power in general and Hillary Clinton specifically.
http://qz.com/624346/america-loves-women-like-hillary-clinton-as-long-as-theyre-not-asking-for-a-promotion/
Basically, we as a society don’t like it when women ask for promotions or seek more power. The puzzling feature is the usually overwhelming approval and popularity once they are in the new role/job
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June 8, 2016 at 1:19 pm
What was that quote about “I don’t know anybody who voted for him”? Apparently it is misattributed to Pauline Kael.
WH lays out some decent reasons for a contrary result, and you might look at the Dilbert guy’s blog and his discussion of Trumps persuasion. It seems naive to think that a person would be successful in business without having real people skills, or how a person could be in the public eye for decades and never get called a racist until he fights the Dem establishment.
If this is a business-as-usual election you are probably right. To me it is more a matter of upending current alignments. The #NeverTrump R faction is still going strong, and yet Bernie supporters may find themselves happier with a candidate that a) is anti-status quo and b) didn’t support or start any wars.
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June 8, 2016 at 2:46 pm
“and yet Bernie supporters may find themselves happier with a candidate that a) is anti-status quo and b) didn’t support or start any wars.”
It is impossible for me to believe that Trump will attract a single Bernie voter. Those voters are progressives. Trump is regressive in almost every way.
That doesn’t mean Bernie voters will necessarily vote for Clinton. They might stay home.
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June 8, 2016 at 2:56 pm
Washington Post had 20% last month.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/24/how-likely-are-bernie-sanders-supporters-to-actually-vote-for-donald-trump-here-are-some-clues/
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June 8, 2016 at 3:25 pm
I hope you’re right.
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June 8, 2016 at 11:04 pm
Well, technically speaking, Trump can’t be president because the constitution says so.
It’s true – right there in the 46th amendment – “no fucking lying shitbag cuntfaced facist nazi wank-stained orange pile of vomit infused with pus, shall be eligible for public office”. I thought this was well known to every 8th grader.
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June 9, 2016 at 9:25 am
What WH said. It’s Y2K all over again. Someone Nader-esque is likely to step in. As long as democrats nominate weak and uninspiring candidates, they will lose. A lot of voters have made up their minds about HRC – if not because of her husband, possibly because of her possible indictment, war-mongering, and association with Kissinger to name a few things. That said, as much as I dislike her myself, I still hope she wins over Trump. I would not be complacent in assuming that the win will be easy for her.
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June 9, 2016 at 12:53 pm
“or how a person could be in the public eye for decades and never get called a racist until he fights the Dem establishment”
But this simply isn’t true. Trump has been called out for racism over and over, back as far as 1973 when he refused to rent properties based on race or colour.
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June 9, 2016 at 1:11 pm
If you truly think it’s going to be a landslide you can sidle on over to PredictIt and put some money down: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/612/Will-the-Democratic-presidential-nominee-win-at-least-370-electoral-votes-in-2016#data
FYI in the USPrez market, Clinton is only at 67 cents right now (meaning 67% chance of winning) which is probably way undervalued.
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June 10, 2016 at 11:06 am
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/282936-fearing-trump-greens-run-to-clinton
Americans might be very upset, many desperate but most of them know what makes sense and what doesn’t in the face of adversity and uncertainty.
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June 12, 2016 at 1:21 am
That is how Trump will make America great again!. A smart sophisticated man.
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